Conflicts over gas supplies and Kiev's overtures to NATO are currently placing great strain on relations between Ukraine and Russia. The energy compromise reached in mid-March will not last beyond the end of this year, and MOscow will continue to oppose any plans to integrate Ukraine in the western alliance of NATO and the EU, arguing that this move would disrupt Europe's sucurity architecture.

Ukraine is the litmus test for the European Neigbourhood Policy. Is it possible to extend democracy to countries that aspire to join the EU if the prospect of future EU membership is then denied to them?

Relations between Ukraine and the EU have made unspectacular progress since the 2004 Orange Revolution, despite the expectations raised by the democratic uprising in Kiev and the Union’s enlargement to Central and Eastern Europe. Since 2004, Ukraine has been confronted with recurrent internal political turmoil and parliamentary gridlock which have tarnished its image as a reforming country and the prospects of deepening relations with the enlarged Union. Meanwhile, the EU has been distracted by the trauma of the failure to ratify the Constitutional Treaty and the ensuing ‘enlargement fatigue’ reinforced by the experience of Bulgarian and Romanian accession.

When Viktor Yushchenko was declared to have lost the presidential elections in Ukraine in late 2004 to Viktor Yanukovych, the candidate backed by outgoing president Leonid Kuchma and by Russia, Yushchenko and his supporters took to the streets to protest that the vote had been rigged. After 10 days of peaceful but dramatic demonstrations, dubbed the Orange Revolution, a rerun was ordered, which Yushchenko won. The Orange Revolution inspired hopes both in Ukraine and the West that Ukraine had unequivocally embarked on a course of democratic reform and Western integration. Ukraine’s transition, however, has proven to be bumpier than many observers had anticipated.

Ukrainian foreign policy until 2005 could be described as ambiguous. On the one hand the ruling elite displayed a clear preference for the West, and wished to integrate the country into European and Euro-Atlantic structures. At the same time, Ukraine was prevented from fully associating with the West by its considerable dependence on Russian energy and trade.