Trump: Six months that will change the world

originally published in voz.us

July 20 marks six months since the inauguration of Donald Trump’s new presidency. For many—particularly the American left and Europeans in general—it has already felt like an eternity.

First and foremost because it’s been super-intense from minute one, with dozens of executive orders ready to be signed on inauguration day itself. Many of them aimed at undoing much of the wrongs and mistakes of the Biden era.

Second, because the decisions taken by the American president have affected almost every conceivable area, from immigration to foreign policy and security, passing through international trade,the fight against elites and their woke ideology, relations with Russia, energy policy, the future of NATO, the alliance with Israel, China, Ukraine and the preemptive strike against the Ayatollahs Iranian nuclear program. Who else could boast about doing more?

And thirdly, because the torrent of policies and statements advanced by Trump along with his methods of pressure on both friends and foes, or his apparent contradictions, have generated a great deal of confusion. The American and global left remain captive to Trump Derangement Syndrome, a mindset in which everything the U.S. president does is intrinsically diabolical and condemnable. But in recent months, a significant portion of conservatives have begun to suffer from Trump Confusion Syndrome, unable to understand from their sclerotic mental structure the activity and attitude of Donald Trump. He is not what they expected, thought he was, or wanted him to be.

The American and world left is still a prisoner of the Trump Derangement Syndrome, according to which everything that comes out of the American president is intrinsically diabolical and condemnable; but a good part of the conservatives have begun to suffer in these months from the Trump Confussion Syndrome, unable to understand from their sclerotic mental structure the activity and attitude of Donald Trump. He is not what they expected, thought he was or wanted him to be.

It goes without saying that for me, Donald Trump for the second time in the White House is the best thing that could happen to the United States of America, immersed in a crisis of identity, and a great opportunity for the rest of the Western world, which was sliding down a suicidal, antidemocratic and liberticidal slope, with a great risk of ending up in a social explosion at home and under the domination of China abroad.

In general, and living among Europeans, those who believe that Trump is a gift from heaven are a small minority and many more who see him as an egocentric fool or a dangerous madman.

But, in reality, the danger is not Donald Trump, but not understanding him. Not knowing how to read his motivations, his objectives and his way of acting. And in that, we Europeans are champions. But not only Europeans. Donald Trump is not just any president. In fact, he is quite 'unconventional.' But not because of his direct and sometimes rude style - the criticism usually leveled at him from elites who think they are better educated and smarter than anyone else. The supposed superiority of the 'Davos Man' over the Hilbilly.

Trump, the 'unconventional' president

Trump is radically "unconventional" because he does not draw from or admire the concepts and ideologies that have dominated political activity since the end of World War II. Trump is not heir to the internationalist or Wilsonian strand of the United States, nor does he see himself reflected in the values of Atlanticism. He has been nurtured neither by history nor by the intellectual world that valued that world. As Robert Kaplan has aptly written in his essay Trump's New Map: "(Trump) is post-literate. He exists in a world of social media and smartphones but has not immersed himself in the study of narrative History, even superficially." Simply because he doesn't need to. And that is something that exasperates the internationalist elites on both sides of the Atlantic, particularly on the European shore.

For Kaplan, devoid of History, Trump has only geography left as a basis for his feelings and action. A sort of 'Donroe' doctrine on a homogeneous map that goes from Greenland to Panama.

Something similar explains Henry Olsen after Trump's recent turn toward Ukraine and Putin. For Olsen, most politicians, especially in rigid old Europe, move within some broad philosophical categories. These major currents, explicit or not, conscious or not, determine to a large extent their proposals and their reactions. Thus, for example, a "green" will never be in favor of removing subsidies for renewable energies or reducing taxes on oil derivatives. Or a neoliberal will never blame the market for inequality or crises, to cite two examples.

For Henry Olsen, Trump is a person who does not ascribe or tie himself to any of these great intellectual traditions. His is something else, it is the art of compromise.

It is true that many leaders see in Trump someone oriented to the transactional. But they understand it more as a tactic than as a vital approach. It's not traditional give-and-take. Trump knows what he wants to get out of a deal, but how he gets there is contingent on the ultimate goal. He doesn't want a diplomatic process where the goal is negotiation; he wants the outcome he wants. Hence, in NATO jargon, nothing is closed until everything is closed and everything is in solfa until the final agreement is reached.

Olsen applies this to the spin on Ukraine and Putin to try to get the European allies out of yet another mistake. It is not, as is now being told in Berlin, Paris and London, that Trump has made his particular way to Damascus and had Putin's true nature revealed to him. Simply, frustrated with the Russian leadership that is preventing him from getting where Trump wanted, he is now looking for a change of tools with which to clear the path to that agreement, well explicit from day 1 (namely, acceptance of Russian presence where it is in exchange for security and independence for the rest of Ukraine).

In short , extreme care must be taken in interpreting Donald Trump's actions, because if they are judged simply from the parameters of old politics, we will continue to be mired in confusion and growing frustration with America.

And after this first major warning, the facts:

Since The White House, Trump has tried to deliver on as many election promises as possible because, unlike most politicians who believe promises are there not to be kept, Trump does want to be true to what he said in his campaign.

On the domestic front, he has reversed Biden's immigration policy by achieving that from some two million illegals a year, inflows have dropped to practically zero. Likewise, his deportation policy is a blow against the prevailing leftist ideology that sees emigration as a basic human right. And in that sense, it has been able to awaken a debate in Europe that was until now strongly censored by a goodwill that has degenerated into a policy of open doors and blurring of borders that is unsustainable in the short term and suicidal in the long term.

In the cultural field, Trump has launched an offensive against the woke thinking installed in the institutions and very particularly, in the American universities. It has restored the nature of women's sports for women and has targeted everything that smells of DEI. The Law is equal for all and all equal before the Law. In a world where knowing which public restroom to enter or which of the 37 gender categories you belonged to, reintroducing common sense is a truly revolutionary event.

In a world where knowing which public restroom to enter or which of the 37 gender categories you belonged to, reintroducing common sense is truly revolutionary.

In the economic arena, President Trump has thrown in tariffs to rebalance an international trade that he claimed was unfair to America. Tariffs are anathema to liberal economists who subordinate everything to the principle of free trade, but it is undeniable that free trade exists only in their heads. Everyone, with China at the forefront, seeks to take maximum advantage of the system by protecting their industries, either through direct or indirect subsidies, or through monetary engineering. Trump wants a new Gilded Age for the American economy and is convinced that his tariff policy will allow it. And so far, he is not doing badly, to be honest. No hyperinflation as predicted, no drop in consumption, no replacement of the dollar as the world's currency.

In the political arena, Trump has not only caused commotion in the Democrats, but has surprised even those in his own camp, marginalizing the most extreme elements of the MAGA movement, as has been seen with the Epstein affair. Further proof of his pragmatism AND also, it will be said, of his egocentrism: no one is going to tell Trump what it is to be MAGA really. MAGA is his invention and not the product of propaganda superstars or think-tanks in DC. Trumpism is what Trump wants it to be, period. In celebrity politics, less is more in terms of numbers and the spotlight can only shine on the lead actor.

In the realm of security and defense, fear of Trump has achieved something no other president has accomplished to date: getting European allies to commit to spending more on their defense. And while one has to be skeptical given that the Europeans have been promising the same thing since the late 1970s, this time it is different: there is Russia on the one hand and, on the other, the fear of being abandoned by the United States. Possibly, at present, only Germany, among the big countries, is in a position to significantly increase its military spending, but the direction is clear: if NATO wants to continue to exist, it must comply with what has been agreed. And if the bet is on an independent and autonomous European defense, not only would much more have to be spent, but the welfare state to which Europeans are so attached would have to be cut.

Trump is a person who abhors war. Hence his first choice is always to try to reach an agreement that avoids a military confrontation. But as we have seen, that does not mean that he is not willing to authorize warlike actions especially if they do not involve soldiers on the ground and are not prolonged in time. We saw it with the Houthis in Yemen and we have just seen it with the Midnight Hammer operation against Iran's nuclear facilities. No more Obama-era red lines-turned-pink lines or the permanent paralysis of the Biden administration.

As Nial Ferguson has said, Trump has restored America's credibility in the eyes of the world. The world has traditionally feared a hegemonic America or a world without America. There is tons of ink wasted on both scenarios. Now what is feared is an America First that is labeled as unsupportive and selfish.

It would be useful to remind all those political and opinion leaders that yes, it is true that for Trump there are no permanent friends and enemies, and that everything depends on the moment and the satisfaction of reciprocal interests. But that this is not an invention of Donald Trump. Was it not Lord Parlmenston who said that "England has neither permanent friends nor enemies, only permanent interests"? If we were smart we should know how to exploit common interests and minimize those that produce friction. Those who still believe that they can survive Trump for four years and then everything will go back to the way it was before, let them be disenchanted as soon as possible. Trumpism is here to stay.